Assessing Land use, Climate and Biodiversity impacts of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) from the EU and its Member States (Bioclima)
Funding
European Commission DG Environment
Duration
2021 - 2022
Organisation
- IIASA International Institute for Applied System Analysis
- World conservation monitoring system
- UN environment
- EuroCARE
Consortium led by
- Dr. Petr Havlik - project coordinator (IIASA)
- Dr. Piero Visconti - scientific coordinator and co-project coordinator (IIASA)
Overview
The consortium offers to the European Commission (EC) a state-of-the-art modelling framework building on the LULUCF models applied in EUCLIMIT to provide a quantitative analysis of the potential effects of implementing the EU 2030 Biodiversity strategy and Farm to Fork strategy an land-use policies on climate, biodiversity and ecosystem services to 2030 and 2050, as proposed by Member States (MS) in their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), National Forestry Accounting Plans (NFAPs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs).
Expertise and past collaborations
The consortium has extensive experience with modelling of EU land use, climate and biodiversity policies, demonstrated through previous projects that have conducted or supported a number of extensive policy analyses for the EC. IIASA’s GLOBIOM and G4M models are the reference models used by the EC for LULUCF assessments while EuroCARE’s CAPRI model is among the reference models used by the EC for agriculture impact assessments. Members of the consortium contributed, most recently, to:
- The assessment of the “Clean Planet for all” EU long-term strategy (EC, 2018) -GLOBIOM/G4M, CAPRI
- A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 (EC, 2011) -GLOBIOM/G4M, CAPRI
- The assessment of the 2020 and 2030 energy and climate packages (EC, 2014) –GLOBIOM/G4M, CAPRI
- The LULUCF regulation on the inclusion of the land-use sector in the 2030 energy and climate framework (EC, 2016) – GLOBIOM/G4M
- The estimation of non-CO2 mitigation potentials from agriculture (Van Doorslaer et al.2015, Perez-Dominguez et al., 2016, 2020) for the EC – CAPRI
- GLOBIOM was used by the EC to quantify indirect land-use change effects of 1st and 2nd generation biofuels (Valin et al., 2015, 2016)
Main tasks
- Taks 0: Inception including mobilisation and team up,inception report and kick-off meeting
- Taks 1: Review of the models available to forecast land-use change, LULUCF emissions and removals and biodiversity responses
- Taks 1.1: Review of land-use and carbon models
- Taks 1.2: Review and selection of key biodiversity indicators.
- Taks 1.3: Review and selection of biodiversity models
- Taks 2: Review of national policies and their implementation
- Taks 2.1: Identification of information needed and development of a consultation plan
- Taks 2.2: Review of readily available information
- Taks 2.3: Implement the consultation plan
- Taks 2.4: Analysis and reporting
- Taks 3: Model data update and development
- Taks 3.1: Improvements and updates of land-use models and associated carbon stocks and emissions.
- Taks 3.2: Improvements and updates of biodiversity models
- Taks 3.3: Test linkages between biodiversity, carbon and land-use models under combined climate and biodiversity policies
- Taks 4: LULUCF and biodiversity scenarios generation and evaluation
- Taks 4.1: Biodiversity assessments of policy scenarios
- Taks 4.2: Assessment of climate mitigation contribution of ecosystems’ conservation and restoration
- Taks 4.3: Assessment of synergistic and antagonistic effects of climate mitigation and biodiversity policies
- Taks 4.4: Monitoring of emission and removals
Responsibilities of EuroCARE
- Assistance in the review of land-use modelling frameworks (Task 1)
- Leading the improvements of the CAPRI model within land-use and carbon models (Task 3)
- Leading the CAPRI applications, communication with other modelling systems and interpretation of results from LULUCF and biodiversity related scenarios (Task 4)
- Development and adjustment of the LULUCF and GHG representation in the CAPRI model to the needs of the study (Task 3.1)
- Improvment of the fertiliser and pesticide representation in CAPRI (Task 3.1)
- Design, organisation, implementation and check of series of scenario experiments related to LULUCF and biodiversity (Task 4)
- Development of indicators with biodiversity relevant information from standard CAPRI output(Task 3)
- Application and potential improvements of the CAPRI downscaling methodology (Task3)
- Support in scenario work making use of new infrastructure developed in this study (Task4)
- Update and improvment of the database handling in CAPRI which may become challenging with additional disaggregation of items like pesticides (Task 3)
- Contribution to the application and improvements of the CAPRI downscaling methodology (Task 3)
