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Assessing possible impacts of an EU-importban for GMO-plants from third countries (BVL_importban)

Funding

Bundesamt für Verbraucherschutz und Lebensmittelsicherheit (BVL)

Duration

September 2019 - completion of tasks

Overview

The changing conditions of how genome-edited plants are treated outside the EU poses new question to international trade, especially the possible consequences of a general import ban. These possible consequences are analyzed by means of the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The underlying assumptions in the model cover supply models at NUTS2-level in the base years 2008 and 2012. Furthermore GAP rules after 2014,a Brexit-Scenario and a generel free trade agreement are assumed.

Contributions of EuroCARE

EuroCARE calculates 5 scenarios:

  • Scenario 1: Soybeans, soyoil and soycake are no longer allowed to be imported from US, Canada and Brasil into the EU

  • Scenario 2: Scenario 1 is extended insofar as soybeans and soyproducts at all are no longer allowed to be imported into the EU from third countries.

  • Scenario 3 and 4: The first two scenarios now cover corn and wheat and their products.

  • Scenario 5: In the last scenario soy, corn and wheat and their products are banned as imports to the Eu from third countries.

  • All scenarios have to be developed and tested, inlcuding changes in the code and debugging. The six outputfiles (Baseline + 5 Scenarios) are prepared in a way that they can be used further with standard software.