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Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change context (AgCLIM50)

Funding

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Duration

AgClim50-I: July 2015 - February 2017

AgClim50-II: June 2017 - August 2018

AgClim50-III: December 2018 - June 2020

AgClim50-IV: December 2020 - ongoing

AgClim50-V: August 2022 - ongoing

Organisation

Consortium ENgAGE (Expert Network for Agro-Economic modelling) represented by LEI, institute within the legal entity Stichting Dienst Landbouwkundig Onderzoek, Wageningen. Active members of the team were:

The leading role of JRC staff to study design and interpretation should be stressed. JRC staff also actively contributed to the CAPRI simulations.

Overview

AgClim50-I

The first study analyses the global impacts of climate change on agricultural production, prices, trade, consumption and the potential for emission mitigation/adaptation strategies. For this purpose a set of 12 scenarios has been simulated that differed by

  • SSP 1, 2, or 3
  • Climate shocks according to RCP2.6 or RCP 6.0.
  • Moderate mitigation aiming at the 2 degree target
Scenario results were compared between the models involved according to a reporting template.


AgClim50-II (The 1.5 Degree Target Challenge)

This study focusses on an array of carbon price paths (2010,30,50,70) from low to very high level ranging (for the final year 2070) from 50 to 2500 USD/t CO2e that were applied on top of an SSP2 baseline. Unlike the first study no variation of SSPs or climate assumptions has been investigted. The effects were decomposed into effects from technological mitigation, from production adjustments, and structural effects as a residual. The potential role of diet shifts to GHG mitigaiton has also been investigated. For comparisons between the models involved results have been aggregated according to a common reporting template building on and further developing previous reporting templates.


AgClim50-III (Focus on extreme events)

In this project the focus will be on lower-probability higher-impact extreme events; i.e., realisations of the empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) or draws from simulated CDF’s of climatic variables or indices that lie on the tails and have a significant effect on crop yields (Stephenson 2008). The decision on which extreme event(s) the research will focus, depends on the available data and model possibilities, a decision that should be taken between the Consortium and the European Commission at the kick-off meeting. Scenarios will be done for the projection years 2030, 2050 (and, if possible, 2070) and will have global coverage with disaggregation into major world regions. Furthermore, the scenarios will follow the same Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2). The climate data used for the project could follow Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) or the scenario framework of the Half degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) experiment.


AgClim50-IV (Focus on water as an agricultural production factor)

Climate change is a major challenge for food security. Productivity of both irrigated and rain-fed agriculture is affected by changes in the long-term climate trends (i.e. via changes in precipitation, temperature and radiative forcing). Intensification, through irrigation, is often recommended as an option to increase food production while reducing the pressure on land. However, in water stressed regions, irrigation also poses a challenge for water availability. The integration of climate and socioeconomic changes from GGCMs (crop yields and water demand/stress) and GHMs (water availability) is necessary to be able to analyse these interactions. Within this project, this will be translated into a harmonised scenario framework and investigated by a suite of large-scale agricultural economic models.The main objective of this specific contract is to harmonise the introduction of water as a production factor in global agro-economic models. Consequently, this project includes an update of the relevant databases that the models use, what implies the identification and evaluation of potential data sources. It also includes an improved methodological representation of water as production factor at the global level to allow for an informed inter-comparison model assessment. Last but not least, the different data updates and model developments are tested within a multi-model policy scenario framework.



AgClim50-V (Global Land Degradation Impacts on Biodiversity and Agriculture productivity)

Land degradation is one of the world’s most pressing environmental problems and it will worsen without rapid remedial action. It is often caused by a combination of factors such as poor land management, unsustainable agricultural practices (e.g. overgrazing), forestry practices, pollution and deforestation. Land degradation affects everyone through food insecurity, higher food prices, climate change, environmental hazards, and the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services.The main objective of this project is the harmonisation of the global land-use model inputs across three different models (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, and MAGNET-IMAGE) and improving the understanding of how land degradation and climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and biodiversity at global and regional scales. Consequently this project implies the identification and evaluation of potential data sources and includes an update of the global land-use databases underlying these models. It also includes an improved methodological representation of utilized agriculture area to allow for an informed inter-comparison model assessment. Last but not least, the different data updates and model developments are tested within a multi-model policy scenario framework to assess the impact of land degradation on crop productivity and biodiversity.


Contributions of EuroCARE

EuroCARE provided technical support for the necessary CAPRI model adjustments and mainly contributed to the CAPRI parts in the reporting.

Documents

AgClim50-I: Van Meijl, H., P. Havlik, H. Lotze-Campen, E. Stehfest, P. Witzke, I. Pérez Domínguez, B. Bodirsky, M. van Dijk, J. Doelman, T. Fellmann, F. Humpenoeder, J. Levin-Koopman, C. Mueller, A. Popp, A. Tabeau, H. Valin (2017): Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50). JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 28649 EN, doi:10.2760/772445