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Modelling the effects of phasing out the use of cages in EU livetsock farming (EndCages)

Funding

COPA-COGECA


Duration

January 2022 - November 2022


Organisation

  • AKI Institue of Agricultural Economics, Dr. Pál Goda, Budapest
  • Eurocare

  • Background

    On 30 June 2021, the Euopean Commision announced a policy initiative for phasing out the use of cages in EU livestock farming (C(2021 4747 final), which may considerarbly impact on several of the livestock sectors and product chains. To gain insight into and understanding of the complex socio-economic consequences of this policy initiative, a science-based assessment is to be conducted. This assessment shall quantify the possible impacts and highlights the economic risks at stake for the agircultural sector to support a fair and balanced policy debate.

    Overview

    The assessment of the impacts of phasing out the use of cages in EU livestock farming shall be carried out at:

      (a) Breeding/selection level (the impact of non- use of cages for genetic improvement. It will include a survey to collect data from breeding companies

      (b) Farm level, focusing on the effects on agricultural production and farm incomes, as well as the feasbility to adopt to alternative prdouction systems

      (c) national sector level, focusing on the changes in production, and structural changes in the sectors affected by new regulations

      (d) EU level, focusing on the changes in international trade of animal products, and the likely movements of production between Member States

    The impact assessment shall be conducted on two paths

      1) farm-level analysis in selected EU Member States (See (a) above) with an attempt to scale-up the reuslt to sector levels

      2) sectoral analyses for the selected EU Member States and for the entire EU (see (b) and (c) above), with the use of the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact (CAPRI) model

    main tasks:

    The CAPRI model reuslts in the economic impacts will show the extent of the challenge of transition for the sectors affected. These will provide help in selecting or designing of the appropriate policy tools to mitigate the eventually negative economic impacts. Specific outputs of the CAPRI model shall inlcude:

    • production effects down to NUTS2 regional level: eggs, pig meat, including impacts on young birds and piglets

    • income effects down to NUTS2 regional level measured with Gross Value Added (GVA) = Revenues + Subsidies - Costs

    • impacts on the optimal feed mix
    • impacts on the market balances at Member State level, excluding young birds (supply, consumption, trade, cost of production)

    • impacts on bilateral trade with non-EU countries for both EU-West (EU-14) and EU-East (New Member States)

    • impacts on prices for consumer (poultry meat, pork meat, eggs) and producers, the case of which changes in prices will impact on margins, from whoch conclusions can be drawn regarding the ability to invest

    • environmental impacts, inclduing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities (methane, nitrous oxide) and ammonia emissions from manure application/ storage and from synthetic fertilizers

    • leakage effects of greenhouse gas emissions

    • N-balance for agricultural soils