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Linkage of IFM_CAP with a farm structural change module (IFM_structureChange)

("Improvement and extension of IFM-CAP (Individual Farm Model for the Common Agricultural Policy) model, Lot 4: Implementation of linkage with a farm structural change module")

Funding

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Duration

May 2015 - September 2016

Organisation

Project leader: Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Braunschweig, Germany

Sub-contractor: EuroCARE GmbH

Overview

The study develops a methodology to link the IFM-CAP model with farm structural change modelling

  • Task 1 develops a methodology appplicable to IFM_CAP to project farm structural change in terms of farm numbers in certain groups
  • Task 2 deals with the problem of a typology which can be used by IFM-CAP and captures the dynamics of structural change and is sufficiently represented in time and space for the estimation. It turns out that this typology needs to be country specific.
  • In Task 3 the proposed methodology to project farm structure is applied. This requires to (re)estimate based on the findings of Task 1 and for the refined typology from Task 2 to obtain estimates of farm structural change in terms of the number of farms for different farm typologies across all EU regions.
  • Task 4 links farm structure to an external baseline. This baseline gives variables suitable as source of drivers of farm structural change according to the model developed in Task 3.
  • The previous tasks focussed on prediction (forecast) of farm numbers. Task 5 considers the possibility to account for endogenous adjustment of farm specialization and farm size to changes of different economic and policy drivers available in IFM-CAP.

Contributions of EuroCARE

Thomas Heckelei provided advice in particular for Task 4.