Linkage of IFM_CAP with a farm structural change module (IFM_structureChange)
("Improvement and extension of IFM-CAP (Individual Farm Model for the Common Agricultural Policy) model, Lot 4: Implementation of linkage with a farm structural change module")
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
May 2015 - September 2016
Project leader: Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Braunschweig, Germany
Sub-contractor: EuroCARE GmbH
The study develops a methodology to link the IFM-CAP model with farm structural change modelling
- Task 1 develops a methodology appplicable to IFM_CAP to project farm structural change in terms of farm numbers in certain groups
- Task 2 deals with the problem of a typology which can be used by IFM-CAP and captures the dynamics of structural change and is sufficiently represented in time and space for the estimation. It turns out that this typology needs to be country specific.
- In Task 3 the proposed methodology to project farm structure is applied. This requires to (re)estimate based on the findings of Task 1 and for the refined typology from Task 2 to obtain estimates of farm structural change in terms of the number of farms for different farm typologies across all EU regions.
- Task 4 links farm structure to an external baseline. This baseline gives variables suitable as source of drivers of farm structural change according to the model developed in Task 3.
- The previous tasks focussed on prediction (forecast) of farm numbers. Task 5 considers the possibility to account for endogenous adjustment of farm specialization and farm size to changes of different economic and policy drivers available in IFM-CAP.
Contributions of EuroCARE
Thomas Heckelei provided advice in particular for Task 4.